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Verl vs Havelse Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

Verl

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Havelse

PPG 0.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.5%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.2%1-16.6%1-24.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.9%2-18.8%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.8%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-19.9%4+-26.3%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.9% 80.0% 1.25 -17.6%

Draw 18.8% 17.2% 5.80 +9.0%

Away win 15.3% 10.3% 9.75 +49.2%

Over 2.5 75.2% 76.9% 1.30 -2.2%

Over 3.5 55.3% 56.5% 1.77 -2.1%

BTTS 68.0% 64.5% 1.55 +5.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob68.0%

H 66% / xG 2.7-1.3 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 6.6%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Verl2.7

Havelse1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.2% · O3.5 PROB 55.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VERL · PPG 2.00

HAVELSE · PPG 0.59

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.59) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Verl (H) 65.9%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -17.6%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +9.0%

Havelse (A) 15.3%

ODDS 9.75 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV +49.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Verl face Havelse in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Verl a 66% chance, the draw 19% and Havelse 15%, so Verl are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Verl and 1.3 for Havelse (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Verl are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.59 for Havelse. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Verl vs Havelse Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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