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Saarbrucken vs Mannheim Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

Saarbrucken

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mannheim

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 68% chance

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.2%0-24.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.8%1-110.7%1-27.3%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.2%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.9%3-15.3%3-23.7%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.4%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 54.6% 1.83 -18.8%

Draw 26.6% 25.6% 3.90 +3.7%

Away win 29.0% 27.0% 3.70 +7.3%

Over 2.5 60.0% 67.6% 1.48 -11.2%

Over 3.5 37.6% 46.5% 2.15 -19.2%

BTTS 63.0% 70.4% 1.42 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.0%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0✓ 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Saarbrucken1.7

Mannheim1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAARBRUCKEN · PPG 1.65

MANNHEIM · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

68%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.65) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Saarbrucken (H) 44.4%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -18.8%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +3.7%

Mannheim (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Saarbrucken face Mannheim in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saarbrucken a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Mannheim 29%, so Saarbrucken are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Saarbrucken and 1.4 for Mannheim (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saarbrucken are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.06 for Mannheim. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Saarbrucken vs Mannheim Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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