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Regensburg vs Hoffenheim B Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 12:00

Regensburg

PPG 1.59 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hoffenheim B

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.1%0-24.1%0-32.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-05.8%1-19.4%1-27.6%1-34.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.3%3-15.3%3-24.3%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.7%4+-23.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 50.0% 2.00 -15.4%

Draw 25.1% 26.3% 3.80 -4.6%

Away win 32.6% 31.3% 3.20 +4.3%

Over 2.5 67.0% 69.0% 1.45 -2.9%

Over 3.5 45.3% 47.6% 2.10 -4.9%

BTTS 68.7% 72.5% 1.38 -5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob68.7%

H 42% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1✓ 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Regensburg1.8

Hoffenheim B1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

REGENSBURG · PPG 1.59

HOFFENHEIM B · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.59) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Regensburg (H) 42.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -15.4%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.6%

Hoffenheim B (A) 32.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Regensburg face Hoffenheim B in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Regensburg a 42% chance, the draw 25% and Hoffenheim B 33%, so Regensburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Regensburg and 1.6 for Hoffenheim B (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Regensburg are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.18 for Hoffenheim B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Regensburg vs Hoffenheim B Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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