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Holstein Kiel vs Braunschweig Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:00

Holstein Kiel

PPG 1.27 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Braunschweig

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.9%0-24.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.8%1-112.1%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.7%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 45.5% 2.20 -1.0%

Draw 29.1% 29.0% 3.45 +0.4%

Away win 25.9% 32.3% 3.10 -19.7%

Over 2.5 49.4% 55.6% 1.80 -11.1%

Over 3.5 27.5% 33.9% 2.95 -18.9%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 0–0 7.1%

#5 2–0✓ 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Holstein Kiel1.5

Braunschweig1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HOLSTEIN KIEL · PPG 1.27

BRAUNSCHWEIG · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Holstein Kiel (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -1.0%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +0.4%

Braunschweig (A) 25.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Holstein Kiel face Braunschweig in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Holstein Kiel a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Braunschweig 26%, so Holstein Kiel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Holstein Kiel and 1.1 for Braunschweig (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.93 for Braunschweig. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Holstein Kiel vs Braunschweig Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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