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Bielefeld vs Bochum Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:00

Bielefeld

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bochum

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.0%0-24.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.6%1-111.3%1-27.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.2%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.8%3-15.0%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 50.0% 2.00 -14.0%

Draw 27.7% 27.4% 3.65 +1.1%

Away win 29.3% 29.4% 3.40 -0.4%

Over 2.5 56.2% 63.7% 1.57 -11.8%

Over 3.5 33.8% 41.7% 2.40 -18.9%

BTTS 60.3% 67.6% 1.48 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.3%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bielefeld1.6

Bochum1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.2% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BIELEFELD · PPG 1.47

BOCHUM · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Bielefeld (H) 43.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -14.0%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +1.1%

Bochum (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bielefeld face Bochum in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bielefeld a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Bochum 29%, so Bielefeld are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bielefeld and 1.3 for Bochum (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bielefeld are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.73 for Bochum. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Bielefeld vs Bochum Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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