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West Adelaide vs NE MetroStars Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 08:30

West Adelaide

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

NE MetroStars

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-16.1%0-26.4%0-34.5%0-4+3.8%1 1-04.2%1-18.8%1-29.2%1-36.4%1-4+5.5%2 2-03.0%2-16.3%2-26.6%2-34.6%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.5%3-13.0%3-23.2%3-32.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.5%4+-21.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.0% 20.0% 5.00 +25.0%

Draw 23.7% 23.8% 4.20 -0.5%

Away win 51.3% 69.4% 1.44 -26.1%

Over 2.5 68.5% — — —

Over 3.5 47.0% — — —

BTTS 68.2% 66.7% 1.50 +2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob68.2%

A 51% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Adelaide1.4

NE MetroStars2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.5% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST ADELAIDE · PPG 1.67

NE METROSTARS · PPG 2.33

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

West Adelaide (H) 25.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +25.0%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.5%

NE MetroStars (A) 51.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Adelaide face NE MetroStars in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Adelaide a 25% chance, the draw 24% and NE MetroStars 51%, so NE MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for West Adelaide and 2.1 for NE MetroStars (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Adelaide are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.33 for NE MetroStars. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 3-3.

West Adelaide vs NE MetroStars Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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