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M. Srbija vs Brunswick Juven Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 08:15

M. Srbija

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Brunswick Juven

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.3%0-27.2%0-34.8%0-4+3.7%1 1-04.9%1-19.6%1-29.5%1-36.3%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.2%2-16.3%2-26.3%2-34.2%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.4%3-12.8%3-22.8%3-31.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -18.7%

Draw 24.7% 25.6% 3.90 -3.7%

Away win 51.4% 57.8% 1.73 -11.1%

Over 2.5 64.0% — — —

Over 3.5 41.9% — — —

BTTS 64.6% 69.4% 1.44 -7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob64.6%

A 51% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.3%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

M. Srbija1.3

Brunswick Juven2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.9%

Form & verdict PPG

M. SRBIJA · PPG 1.50

BRUNSWICK JUVEN · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

M. Srbija (H) 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.7%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.7%

Brunswick Juven (A) 51.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Srbija face Brunswick Juven in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Srbija a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Brunswick Juven 51%, so Brunswick Juven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for M. Srbija and 2.0 for Brunswick Juven (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Srbija are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.40 for Brunswick Juven. This match finished 1-0.

M. Srbija vs Brunswick Juven Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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