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Altona Magic vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 08:15

Altona Magic

PPG 0.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dandenong City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.8%0-25.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.4%1-111.3%1-28.6%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.2%2-26.2%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.6%3-14.0%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 36.4% 2.75 -4.6%

Draw 27.8% 29.0% 3.45 -4.1%

Away win 37.5% 44.4% 2.25 -15.6%

Over 2.5 57.1% 58.8% 1.70 -2.9%

Over 3.5 34.7% 36.4% 2.75 -4.6%

BTTS 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

A 38% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.1%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altona Magic1.5

Dandenong City1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 0.20

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Altona Magic (H) 34.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -4.6%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.1%

Dandenong City (A) 37.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altona Magic face Dandenong City in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altona Magic a 35% chance, the draw 28% and Dandenong City 38%, so Dandenong City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Altona Magic and 1.5 for Dandenong City (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altona Magic are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Dandenong City. This match finished 1-0.

Altona Magic vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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