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FK Beograd vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 07:30

FK Beograd

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Adelaide Comets

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.3%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.1%1-17.9%1-23.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-19.6%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.0%3-17.7%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-18.3%4+-24.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 61.7% 1.62 +10.3%

Draw 19.7% 26.3% 3.80 -25.1%

Away win 12.2% 22.7% 4.40 -46.3%

Over 2.5 65.9% — — —

Over 3.5 44.0% — — —

BTTS 57.9% 69.4% 1.44 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.9%

H 68% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 3–1✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Beograd2.4

Adelaide Comets1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.33

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.33), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FK Beograd (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +10.3%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -25.1%

Adelaide Comets (A) 12.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -46.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Beograd face Adelaide Comets in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Beograd a 68% chance, the draw 20% and Adelaide Comets 12%, so FK Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for FK Beograd and 1.0 for Adelaide Comets (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Beograd are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.33 for Adelaide Comets. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 3-1.

FK Beograd vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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