Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / North Geelong vs Brunswick City

North Geelong vs Brunswick City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 07:00

North Geelong

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Brunswick City

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.5%0-22.8%0-32.1%0-4+1.9%1 1-02.6%1-15.7%1-26.3%1-34.7%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.9%2-16.4%2-27.1%2-35.3%2-4+4.9%3 3-02.2%3-14.8%3-25.4%3-34.0%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-14.6%4+-25.1%4+-33.8%4+-4+3.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 38.9% — — —

Over 2.5 82.4% — — —

Over 3.5 65.4% — — —

BTTS 80.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob80.7%

H 40% / xG 2.3-2.2 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 81%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.1%

#2 1–1 5.7%

#3 2–1 6.4%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 3–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Geelong2.3

Brunswick City2.2

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.4% · O3.5 PROB 65.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH GEELONG · PPG 1.80

BRUNSWICK CITY · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

North Geelong (H) 39.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brunswick City (A) 38.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

North Geelong face Brunswick City in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Geelong a 40% chance, the draw 21% and Brunswick City 39%, so North Geelong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for North Geelong and 2.2 for Brunswick City (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 81% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Geelong are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.33 for Brunswick City. This match finished 1-0.

North Geelong vs Brunswick City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions