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Playford P. vs Para Hills Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 06:30

Playford P.

PPG 3.00 · HOME

8 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Para Hills

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 91.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0% — a clear edge.

+14.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.4%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.1%1-11.8%1-20.8%1-30.2%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.6%2-14.1%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.9%3-16.2%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-026.9%4+-124.0%4+-210.7%4+-33.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 91.8% 80.0% 1.25 +14.8%

Draw 5.7% 18.2% 5.50 -68.7%

Away win 2.5% 12.5% 8.00 -80.0%

Over 2.5 90.5% — — —

Over 3.5 78.5% — — —

BTTS 58.6% 69.4% 1.44 -15.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-1

xG (home)4.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob58.6%

H 92% / xG 4.5-0.9 / O2.5 90% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 7.8%

#2 5–0 7.0%

#3 4–1 6.9%

#4 3–0 6.9%

#5 5–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Playford P.4.5

Para Hills0.9

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 90.5% · O3.5 PROB 78.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PLAYFORD P. · PPG 3.00

PARA HILLS · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Playford P. (H) 91.8%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV +14.8%

Draw 5.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -68.7%

Para Hills (A) 2.5%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV -80.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Playford P. face Para Hills in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Playford P. a 92% chance, the draw 6% and Para Hills 3%, so Playford P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.5 for Playford P. and 0.9 for Para Hills (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 91% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Playford P. are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Para Hills. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 8-1.

Playford P. vs Para Hills Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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