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Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Utd B Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 05:30

Sturt Lions

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Adelaide Utd B

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.7% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.9%0-23.8%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.9%1-19.3%1-27.2%1-33.8%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.6%3-15.6%3-24.4%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.2%4+-23.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 38.5% 2.60 +16.5%

Draw 24.8% 27.8% 3.60 -10.7%

Away win 30.4% 45.5% 2.20 -33.1%

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 45.7% — — —

BTTS 68.7% 74.1% 1.35 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob68.7%

H 45% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturt Lions1.9

Adelaide Utd B1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STURT LIONS · PPG 1.50

ADELAIDE UTD B · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Sturt Lions (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +16.5%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.7%

Adelaide Utd B (A) 30.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturt Lions face Adelaide Utd B in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturt Lions a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Adelaide Utd B 30%, so Sturt Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sturt Lions and 1.6 for Adelaide Utd B (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturt Lions are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Adelaide Utd B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Utd B Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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