Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Manningham Utd vs Eltham Redbacks

Manningham Utd vs Eltham Redbacks Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 05:15

Manningham Utd

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Eltham Redbacks

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.6%0-24.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.7%1-19.6%1-28.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.8%3-14.7%3-24.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.0%4+-22.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 40.0% 2.50 -5.3%

Draw 25.5% 29.4% 3.40 -13.3%

Away win 36.7% 43.5% 2.30 -15.6%

Over 2.5 66.3% — — —

Over 3.5 44.5% — — —

BTTS 68.4% 73.5% 1.36 -7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.4%

H 38% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1✓ 8.3%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manningham Utd1.7

Eltham Redbacks1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MANNINGHAM UTD · PPG 2.00

ELTHAM REDBACKS · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Manningham Utd (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -5.3%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.3%

Eltham Redbacks (A) 36.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manningham Utd face Eltham Redbacks in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manningham Utd a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Eltham Redbacks 37%, so Manningham Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Manningham Utd and 1.7 for Eltham Redbacks (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manningham Utd are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Eltham Redbacks. This match finished 2-1.

Manningham Utd vs Eltham Redbacks Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions