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Dandenong T. vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 05:15

Dandenong T.

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Preston Lions

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.2%0-28.0%0-34.2%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.6%1-111.9%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.4%2-16.9%2-25.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.7%3-12.7%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.6% 36.4% 2.75 -26.9%

Draw 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -2.4%

Away win 44.7% 44.4% 2.25 +0.6%

Over 2.5 51.3% 56.5% 1.77 -9.2%

Over 3.5 29.2% 33.9% 2.95 -13.9%

BTTS 56.1% 62.5% 1.60 -10.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob56.1%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1✓ 10.2%

#4 0–0 6.5%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong T.1.2

Preston Lions1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG T. · PPG 1.00

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong T. (H) 26.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -26.9%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.4%

Preston Lions (A) 44.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong T. face Preston Lions in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong T. a 27% chance, the draw 29% and Preston Lions 45%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dandenong T. and 1.6 for Preston Lions (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong T. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Preston Lions. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Dandenong T. vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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