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Gremio W vs Corinthians W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 20:30

Gremio W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Corinthians W

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-110.0%0-28.3%0-34.6%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.9%1-111.5%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.9%2-16.6%2-25.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.5%3-12.5%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.6% 17.9% 5.60 +37.8%

Draw 27.7% 27.4% 3.65 +1.1%

Away win 47.8% 64.5% 1.55 -25.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 56.5% 1.77 -5.3%

Over 3.5 31.2% 33.9% 2.95 -8.0%

BTTS 57.2% 55.6% 1.80 +3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob57.2%

A 48% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2✓ 8.3%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gremio W1.1

Corinthians W1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GREMIO W · PPG 1.00

CORINTHIANS W · PPG 2.25

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Gremio W (H) 24.6%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +37.8%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +1.1%

Corinthians W (A) 47.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gremio W face Corinthians W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gremio W a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Corinthians W 48%, so Corinthians W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gremio W and 1.7 for Corinthians W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gremio W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.25 for Corinthians W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +37.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Gremio W vs Corinthians W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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