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Atletico MG W vs Fluminense W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 19:00

Atletico MG W

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Fluminense W

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-113.7%0-27.7%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.9%1-113.4%1-27.6%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.8%2-16.6%2-23.7%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.2%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.4% 35.7% 2.80 -17.7%

Draw 33.8% 34.5% 2.90 -2.0%

Away win 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

Over 2.5 35.3% 43.5% 2.30 -18.8%

Over 3.5 16.3% 23.8% 4.20 -31.5%

BTTS 44.3% 54.1% 1.85 -18.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob44.3%

D 34% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 0–1 13.7%

#4 1–0 11.9%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico MG W1.0

Fluminense W1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.3% · O3.5 PROB 16.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MG W · PPG 0.75

FLUMINENSE W · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico MG W (H) 29.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -17.7%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -2.0%

Fluminense W (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico MG W face Fluminense W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico MG W a 29% chance, the draw 34% and Fluminense W 37%, so Fluminense W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Atletico MG W and 1.1 for Fluminense W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico MG W are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Fluminense W. This match finished 1-1.

Atletico MG W vs Fluminense W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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