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Leeds Utd vs Burnley Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 35 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 19:00

Leeds Utd

PPG 1.53 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Burnley

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+11.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.5%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.3%1-110.4%1-25.8%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.6%3-16.2%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.5%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 70.9% 1.41 -24.0%

Draw 25.5% 21.5% 4.65 +18.6%

Away win 20.6% 14.3% 7.00 +44.2%

Over 2.5 57.9% 59.9% 1.67 -3.3%

Over 3.5 35.5% 37.0% 2.70 -4.2%

BTTS 58.7% 52.6% 1.90 +11.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.7%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leeds Utd1.9

Burnley1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEEDS UTD · PPG 1.53

BURNLEY · PPG 0.53

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.53) vs P(Home)=53.9%

Win probability 1X2

Leeds Utd (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV -24.0%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +18.6%

Burnley (A) 20.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +44.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leeds Utd face Burnley in England - Premier League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leeds Utd a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Burnley 21%, so Leeds Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Leeds Utd and 1.1 for Burnley (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leeds Utd are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.53 for Burnley. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +44.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Leeds Utd vs Burnley Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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