← Back to picks 
England - Premier League Friday, May 1, 2026 19:00 
Leeds Utd PPG 1.53 
Burnley PPG 0.53
England - Premier League Friday, May 1, 2026 19:00 Leeds Utd PPG 1.533-1 MISS
Burnley PPG 0.53Away· +44.2% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: BTTS
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 57.9% Odds: 1.67 -3.3%
Over 3.5 35.5% Odds: 2.70 -4.2%
BTTS 58.7% Odds: 1.90 +11.5%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✘
4th 1-0 ✘
5th 0-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Leeds Utd 1.89
Burnley 1.12
Model Suggestion
BTTS +11.5% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS.
Raw EV leader: Away(+44.2%)
Raw EV leader: Away(+44.2%)
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 80%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.53) vs P(Home)=53.9%