Legia Warsaw vs Widzew Lodz Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Poland - Ekstraklasa Regular Season - 31 Stadion Wojska Polskiego· Warsaw Friday, May 1, 2026 18:30

Legia Warsaw PPG 1.60

1-0 HIT CS3

Widzew Lodz PPG 0.73

Draw· -0.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Legia Warsaw face Widzew Lodz in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Legia Warsaw a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Widzew Lodz 28%, so Legia Warsaw are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Legia Warsaw and 1.0 for Widzew Lodz (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Legia Warsaw are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.73 for Widzew Lodz. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 40.4%

Odds: 2.15 EV: -13.1%

Draw 31.6%

Odds: 3.15 EV: -0.5%

Away 28.0%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -2.0%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 41.7% Odds: 2.20 -8.3%

Over 3.5 21.0% Odds: 4.20 -11.8%

BTTS 49.2% Odds: 1.90 -6.5%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✔

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Legia Warsaw

1.30

Widzew Lodz

1.05

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=40.4%