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Legia Warsaw vs Widzew Lodz Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:30

Legia Warsaw

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Widzew Lodz

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-110.0%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.4%1-113.0%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.5%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.7%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 46.5% 2.15 -13.1%

Draw 31.6% 31.7% 3.15 -0.5%

Away win 28.0% 28.6% 3.50 -2.0%

Over 2.5 41.7% 45.5% 2.20 -8.3%

Over 3.5 21.0% 23.8% 4.20 -11.8%

BTTS 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 1–0✓ 12.4%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Legia Warsaw1.3

Widzew Lodz1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEGIA WARSAW · PPG 1.60

WIDZEW LODZ · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=40.4%

Win probability 1X2

Legia Warsaw (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -13.1%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -0.5%

Widzew Lodz (A) 28.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Legia Warsaw face Widzew Lodz in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Legia Warsaw a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Widzew Lodz 28%, so Legia Warsaw are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Legia Warsaw and 1.0 for Widzew Lodz (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Legia Warsaw are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.73 for Widzew Lodz. This match finished 1-0.

Legia Warsaw vs Widzew Lodz Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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