Today / Switzerland - Challenge League / Neuchatel Xamax vs Aarau

Neuchatel Xamax vs Aarau Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 33 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:15

Neuchatel Xamax

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aarau

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.3%0-25.5%0-33.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.7%1-110.0%1-28.7%1-35.0%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.5%2-17.8%2-26.8%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.4%3-14.1%3-23.6%3-32.1%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.3%4+-22.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.5% 22.2% 4.50 +50.7%

Draw 25.9% 25.0% 4.00 +3.6%

Away win 40.6% 62.5% 1.60 -35.0%

Over 2.5 64.3% 70.4% 1.42 -8.7%

Over 3.5 42.2% 48.8% 2.05 -13.5%

BTTS 66.8% 70.4% 1.42 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob66.8%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neuchatel Xamax1.6

Aarau1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.3% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NEUCHATEL XAMAX · PPG 1.75

AARAU · PPG 2.06

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.75) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.06)

Win probability 1X2

Neuchatel Xamax (H) 33.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +50.7%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +3.6%

Aarau (A) 40.6%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -35.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neuchatel Xamax face Aarau in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neuchatel Xamax a 34% chance, the draw 26% and Aarau 41%, so Aarau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Neuchatel Xamax and 1.7 for Aarau (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neuchatel Xamax are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.06 for Aarau. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +50.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Neuchatel Xamax vs Aarau Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Challenge League Predictions