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Stade Nyonnais vs Wil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 33 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 17:30

Stade Nyonnais

PPG 1.19 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Wil

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.5%0-25.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.0%1-112.8%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.4%2-18.6%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.3%3-13.8%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 35.7% 2.80 +9.8%

Draw 30.7% 29.9% 3.35 +2.9%

Away win 30.1% 44.4% 2.25 -32.3%

Over 2.5 45.6% 56.5% 1.77 -19.3%

Over 3.5 24.2% 34.5% 2.90 -29.8%

BTTS 52.5% 62.5% 1.60 -16.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.5%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 0–1✓ 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stade Nyonnais1.3

Wil1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

STADE NYONNAIS · PPG 1.19

WIL · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.19) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Stade Nyonnais (H) 39.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +9.8%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +2.9%

Wil (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stade Nyonnais face Wil in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stade Nyonnais a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Wil 30%, so Stade Nyonnais are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Stade Nyonnais and 1.2 for Wil (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stade Nyonnais are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.88 for Wil. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Stade Nyonnais vs Wil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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