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Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 15:30

Korona Kielce

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Piast Gliwice

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-19.0%0-25.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.9%1-112.6%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-18.8%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.6%3-14.1%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 40.3% 2.48 +1.2%

Draw 30.2% 30.8% 3.25 -1.8%

Away win 29.1% 36.2% 2.76 -19.7%

Over 2.5 47.0% 52.6% 1.90 -10.7%

Over 3.5 25.4% 31.3% 3.20 -18.7%

BTTS 53.5% 59.9% 1.67 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.5%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Korona Kielce1.4

Piast Gliwice1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KORONA KIELCE · PPG 1.47

PIAST GLIWICE · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Korona Kielce (H) 40.8%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +1.2%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -1.8%

Piast Gliwice (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Korona Kielce face Piast Gliwice in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Korona Kielce a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Piast Gliwice 29%, so Korona Kielce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Korona Kielce and 1.2 for Piast Gliwice (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Korona Kielce are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.20 for Piast Gliwice. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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