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Dziugas Telsiai vs Hegelmann L. Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Lithuania - A Lyga logo Lithuania flag Lithuania - A Lyga Regular Season - 11 Telsiai Central Stadium· Telsiai Friday, May 1, 2026 15:00
Dziugas Telsiai logo Dziugas Telsiai PPG 1.00
3-0 MISS
Hegelmann L. logo Hegelmann L. PPG 0.50
Draw· +2.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Dziugas Telsiai face Hegelmann L. in Lithuania - A Lyga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dziugas Telsiai a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Hegelmann L. 22%, so Dziugas Telsiai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Dziugas Telsiai and 0.9 for Hegelmann L. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dziugas Telsiai are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Hegelmann L.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.7%
Odds: 2.15 EV: -1.7%
Draw 31.9%
Odds: 3.20 EV: +2.1%
Away 22.3%
Odds: 3.10 EV: -30.9%
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 37.7% Odds: 2.15 -18.9%
Over 3.5 18.0% Odds: 3.95 -28.9%
BTTS 44.5% Odds: 1.85 -17.7%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 0-0
3rd 1-0
4th 2-0
5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Dziugas Telsiai
1.33
Hegelmann L.
0.86

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 31%
O2.5/Under 44%
BTTS/No 44%
Score Hit 31%
ROI -56.0%
Bet Hit 20% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.50)

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