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Dziugas Telsiai vs Hegelmann L. Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 15:00

Dziugas Telsiai

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Hegelmann L.

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-19.6%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.8%1-112.8%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.5%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-13.8%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 46.5% 2.15 -1.7%

Draw 31.9% 31.3% 3.20 +2.1%

Away win 22.3% 32.3% 3.10 -30.9%

Over 2.5 37.7% 46.5% 2.15 -18.9%

Over 3.5 18.0% 25.3% 3.95 -28.9%

BTTS 44.5% 54.1% 1.85 -17.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.5%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 14.8%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dziugas Telsiai1.3

Hegelmann L.0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DZIUGAS TELSIAI · PPG 1.00

HEGELMANN L. · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Dziugas Telsiai (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -1.7%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.1%

Hegelmann L. (A) 22.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -30.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dziugas Telsiai face Hegelmann L. in Lithuania - A Lyga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dziugas Telsiai a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Hegelmann L. 22%, so Dziugas Telsiai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Dziugas Telsiai and 0.9 for Hegelmann L. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dziugas Telsiai are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Hegelmann L.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Dziugas Telsiai vs Hegelmann L. Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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