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Banga vs Kauno Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 14:00

Banga

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Kauno Zalgiris

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-113.2%0-210.3%0-35.4%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.6%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.5%2-15.4%2-24.3%2-32.2%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.0%3-11.6%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.0% 19.6% 5.10 +2.0%

Draw 28.9% 27.8% 3.60 +4.0%

Away win 51.0% 62.5% 1.60 -18.4%

Over 2.5 45.1% 51.8% 1.93 -13.0%

Over 3.5 23.8% 29.9% 3.35 -20.3%

BTTS 49.1% 54.1% 1.85 -9.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob49.1%

A 51% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 0–1 13.2%

#3 0–2 10.3%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Banga0.9

Kauno Zalgiris1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGA · PPG 1.80

KAUNO ZALGIRIS · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Banga (H) 20.0%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +2.0%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +4.0%

Kauno Zalgiris (A) 51.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Banga face Kauno Zalgiris in Lithuania - A Lyga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Banga a 20% chance, the draw 29% and Kauno Zalgiris 51%, so Kauno Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Banga and 1.6 for Kauno Zalgiris (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Banga are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 3.00 for Kauno Zalgiris. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Banga vs Kauno Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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