Casric Stars vs Baroka Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

South-Africa - 1st Division Regular Season - 28 Solomon Mahlangu Stadium· KwaMhlanga Friday, May 1, 2026 13:00

Casric Stars PPG 2.08

2-0 HIT CS2

Baroka PPG 0.31

Draw· +17.8% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Casric Stars face Baroka in South-Africa - 1st Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casric Stars a 59% chance, the draw 27% and Baroka 14%, so Casric Stars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Casric Stars and 0.7 for Baroka (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casric Stars are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.31 for Baroka. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 58.7%

Odds: 1.30 EV: -23.7%

Draw 27.2%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +17.8%

Away 14.1%

Odds: 8.00 EV: +12.8%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 42.8% Odds: 1.95 -16.5%

Over 3.5 21.9% Odds: — —

BTTS 43.2% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✔

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Casric Stars

1.68

Baroka

0.72

Model SuggestionHome -23.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -23.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+17.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5/Under 55%

BTTS/No 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 24.2%

Bet Hit 64% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.08) vs P(Home)=58.7%