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Casric Stars vs Baroka Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 13:00

Casric Stars

PPG 2.08 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Baroka

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-16.6%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.3%1-111.0%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.2%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.1%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 76.9% 1.30 -23.7%

Draw 27.2% 23.1% 4.33 +17.8%

Away win 14.1% 12.5% 8.00 +12.8%

Over 2.5 42.8% 51.3% 1.95 -16.5%

Over 3.5 21.9% — — —

BTTS 43.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.2%

H 59% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 2–0✓ 12.8%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Casric Stars1.7

Baroka0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.8% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CASRIC STARS · PPG 2.08

BAROKA · PPG 0.31

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.08) vs P(Home)=58.7%

Win probability 1X2

Casric Stars (H) 58.7%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -23.7%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +17.8%

Baroka (A) 14.1%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Casric Stars face Baroka in South-Africa - 1st Division on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casric Stars a 59% chance, the draw 27% and Baroka 14%, so Casric Stars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Casric Stars and 0.7 for Baroka (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casric Stars are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.31 for Baroka. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Casric Stars vs Baroka Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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