Today / Wegberg-Beeck vs Duren

Wegberg-Beeck vs Duren Prediction

Mittelrhein - 23 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:30

Wegberg-Beeck

PPG 1.73 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Duren

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.7%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.4%1-18.4%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.4%3-17.5%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-17.4%4+-23.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.4% — — —

Draw 18.5% — — —

Away win 15.1% — — —

Over 2.5 64.4% — — —

Over 3.5 42.4% — — —

BTTS 57.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.3%

H 66% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.4%

#4 1–0✓ 8.4%

#5 3–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wegberg-Beeck2.3

Duren1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WEGBERG-BEECK · PPG 1.73

DUREN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Wegberg-Beeck (H) 66.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Duren (A) 15.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Wegberg-Beeck face Duren on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wegberg-Beeck a 66% chance, the draw 19% and Duren 15%, so Wegberg-Beeck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Wegberg-Beeck and 1.0 for Duren (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wegberg-Beeck are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.00 for Duren. This match finished 1-0.

Wegberg-Beeck vs Duren Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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