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Bentleigh G. vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 09:30

Bentleigh G.

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Preston Lions

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-110.6%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.2%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.2%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.4%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 32.3% 3.10 +29.3%

Draw 28.6% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

Away win 29.7% 46.5% 2.15 -36.1%

Over 2.5 38.8% 51.8% 1.93 -25.1%

Over 3.5 18.8% 30.3% 3.30 -38.0%

BTTS 44.9% 58.8% 1.70 -23.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob44.9%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.2%

#2 1–1✓ 13.2%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bentleigh G.1.2

Preston Lions1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 3.00

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=41.7%

Win probability 1X2

Bentleigh G. (H) 41.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +29.3%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.0%

Preston Lions (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -36.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bentleigh G. face Preston Lions in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bentleigh G. a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Preston Lions 30%, so Bentleigh G. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bentleigh G. and 1.0 for Preston Lions (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bentleigh G. are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Preston Lions. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Bentleigh G. vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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