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Langwarrin vs Bulleen Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 09:30

Langwarrin

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Bulleen

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 75.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+47.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-17.1%0-29.7%0-38.9%0-4+11.9%1 1-02.4%1-16.5%1-28.9%1-38.1%1-4+10.9%2 2-01.1%2-13.0%2-24.1%2-33.7%2-4+5.0%3 3-00.3%3-10.9%3-21.2%3-31.1%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.9% 30.8% 3.25 -67.8%

Draw 14.4% 30.3% 3.30 -52.5%

Away win 75.7% 51.3% 1.95 +47.6%

Over 2.5 70.8% — — —

Over 3.5 49.8% — — —

BTTS 56.1% 66.7% 1.50 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob56.1%

A 76% / xG 0.9-2.7 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.7%

#2 0–3 8.9%

#3 1–2 8.9%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 0–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Langwarrin0.9

Bulleen2.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LANGWARRIN · PPG 1.00

BULLEEN · PPG 1.75

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Langwarrin (H) 9.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -67.8%

Draw 14.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -52.5%

Bulleen (A) 75.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +47.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Langwarrin face Bulleen in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Langwarrin a 10% chance, the draw 14% and Bulleen 76%, so Bulleen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Langwarrin and 2.7 for Bulleen (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Langwarrin are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Bulleen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +47.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Langwarrin vs Bulleen Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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