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Dandenong City vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 09:45

Dandenong City

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Green Gully

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+42.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-14.4%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.6%1-19.1%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-19.3%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-16.3%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-15.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.6% 48.8% 2.05 +42.7%

Draw 19.3% 27.4% 3.65 -29.5%

Away win 11.1% 33.9% 2.95 -67.3%

Over 2.5 50.8% 64.5% 1.55 -21.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 42.0% 2.38 -31.7%

BTTS 42.3% 69.0% 1.45 -38.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.3%

H 70% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.9%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 3–0 9.5%

#4 2–1✓ 9.3%

#5 1–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong City2.0

Green Gully0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 1.25

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.40

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.25), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong City (H) 69.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +42.7%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -29.5%

Green Gully (A) 11.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -67.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong City face Green Gully in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong City a 70% chance, the draw 19% and Green Gully 11%, so Dandenong City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Dandenong City and 0.7 for Green Gully (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong City are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.40 for Green Gully. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +42.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Dandenong City vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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