Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Northcote City vs M. Victory B

Northcote City vs M. Victory B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 10:30

Northcote City

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

M. Victory B

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.2%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.2%1-17.7%1-24.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-19.3%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.6%3-24.7%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-18.2%4+-25.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.5% — — —

Draw 20.7% — — —

Away win 16.8% — — —

Over 2.5 70.9% — — —

Over 3.5 49.9% — — —

BTTS 65.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob65.9%

H 62% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–1 7.6%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northcote City2.4

M. Victory B1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHCOTE CITY · PPG 2.50

M. VICTORY B · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=62.5%

Win probability 1X2

Northcote City (H) 62.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

M. Victory B (A) 16.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Northcote City face M. Victory B in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northcote City a 63% chance, the draw 21% and M. Victory B 17%, so Northcote City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Northcote City and 1.2 for M. Victory B (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northcote City are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.60 for M. Victory B. This match finished 1-0.

Northcote City vs M. Victory B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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