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West Torrens vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 10:30

West Torrens

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Adelaide City

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.3%0-24.9%0-33.0%0-4+2.1%1 1-04.9%1-19.1%1-28.4%1-35.1%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.7%2-27.1%2-34.4%2-4+3.1%3 3-02.4%3-14.3%3-24.0%3-32.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.7%4+-22.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 40.7% — — —

Over 2.5 68.7% — — —

Over 3.5 47.3% — — —

BTTS 70.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob70.1%

A 41% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Torrens1.7

Adelaide City1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST TORRENS · PPG 2.33

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

West Torrens (H) 34.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Adelaide City (A) 40.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

West Torrens face Adelaide City in Australia - South Australia NPL on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Torrens a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Adelaide City 41%, so Adelaide City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for West Torrens and 1.8 for Adelaide City (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Torrens are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.75 for Adelaide City. This match finished 1-0.

West Torrens vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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