Today / Australia - South Australia NPL / Campbelltown vs Croydon Kings

Campbelltown vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 10:00

Campbelltown

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Croydon Kings

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.0%0-22.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.2%1-17.3%1-25.1%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.4%2-18.9%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.2%3-17.3%3-25.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-18.0%4+-25.6%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% — — —

Draw 20.8% — — —

Away win 19.6% — — —

Over 2.5 73.9% — — —

Over 3.5 53.7% — — —

BTTS 69.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob69.9%

H 60% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Campbelltown2.5

Croydon Kings1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CAMPBELLTOWN · PPG 1.33

CROYDON KINGS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=59.6%

Win probability 1X2

Campbelltown (H) 59.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Croydon Kings (A) 19.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Campbelltown face Croydon Kings in Australia - South Australia NPL on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Campbelltown a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Croydon Kings 20%, so Campbelltown are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Campbelltown and 1.4 for Croydon Kings (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Campbelltown are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.50 for Croydon Kings. This match finished 1-2.

Campbelltown vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - South Australia NPL Predictions