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Melbourne K. vs Port Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 09:30

Melbourne K.

PPG 2.60 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Port Melbourne

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.5% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-14.2%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.4%1-18.6%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.9%2-18.9%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-16.1%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-15.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.5% 75.2% 1.33 -6.2%

Draw 21.2% 20.8% 4.80 +1.8%

Away win 8.3% 16.7% 6.00 -50.2%

Over 2.5 49.7% — — —

Over 3.5 27.7% — — —

BTTS 40.6% 63.7% 1.57 -36.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob40.6%

H 70% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 14.9%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 3–0 10.2%

#4 1–1 8.6%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne K.2.1

Port Melbourne0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE K. · PPG 2.60

PORT MELBOURNE · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.60), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne K. (H) 70.5%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -6.2%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +1.8%

Port Melbourne (A) 8.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -50.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne K. face Port Melbourne in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne K. a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Port Melbourne 8%, so Melbourne K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Melbourne K. and 0.6 for Port Melbourne (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne K. are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.25 for Port Melbourne. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Melbourne K. vs Port Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions