Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / South Melbourne vs Melbourne C. B

South Melbourne vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 09:30

South Melbourne

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Melbourne C. B

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.2%0-24.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.0%1-110.7%1-27.2%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.3%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.0%3-15.4%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.5%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 75.2% 1.33 -39.8%

Draw 26.7% 20.8% 4.80 +28.2%

Away win 28.0% 16.7% 6.00 +68.0%

Over 2.5 59.3% — — —

Over 3.5 37.0% — — —

BTTS 62.4% 63.7% 1.57 -2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.4%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0✓ 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Melbourne1.7

Melbourne C. B1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 1.50

MELBOURNE C. B · PPG 1.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

South Melbourne (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -39.8%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +28.2%

Melbourne C. B (A) 28.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +68.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Melbourne face Melbourne C. B in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Melbourne a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Melbourne C. B 28%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for South Melbourne and 1.3 for Melbourne C. B (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Melbourne are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Melbourne C. B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +68.0%. This match finished 2-0.

South Melbourne vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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