Today / Harksheide vs HEBC

Harksheide vs HEBC Prediction

Hamburg - 31 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:30

Harksheide

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

HEBC

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.3%0-25.3%0-33.5%0-4+2.8%1 1-04.3%1-18.7%1-28.7%1-35.8%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.5%2-17.1%2-27.0%2-34.7%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.9%3-13.8%3-23.8%3-32.5%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.2%4+-22.2%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% — — —

Draw 21.5% — — —

Away win 46.7% — — —

Over 2.5 70.1% — — —

Over 3.5 49.0% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.4%

A 47% / xG 1.6-2.0 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1✓ 7.1%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harksheide1.6

HEBC2.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.1% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HARKSHEIDE · PPG 1.60

HEBC · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Harksheide (H) 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

HEBC (A) 46.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Harksheide face HEBC on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harksheide a 32% chance, the draw 22% and HEBC 47%, so HEBC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Harksheide and 2.0 for HEBC (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harksheide are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.07 for HEBC. This match finished 2-1.

Harksheide vs HEBC Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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