Today / ETSV Hamburg vs Nikola Tesla

ETSV Hamburg vs Nikola Tesla Prediction

Friday, April 17, 2026

ETSV Hamburg

PPG 2.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nikola Tesla

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.58), Away AVERAGE (1.23) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.3%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.4%1-11.6%1-20.5%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-05.6%2-13.6%2-21.2%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.5%3-15.5%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-035.2%4+-122.8%4+-27.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 94.7% — — —

Draw 3.7% — — —

Away win 1.5% — — —

Over 2.5 89.4% — — —

Over 3.5 76.8% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 95% / xG 4.6-0.6 / O2.5 89% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 9.8%

#2 5–0 9.0%

#3 3–0 8.5%

#4 4–1 6.4%

#5 5–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ETSV Hamburg4.6

Nikola Tesla0.6

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 89.4% · O3.5 PROB 76.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ETSV HAMBURG · PPG 2.58

NIKOLA TESLA · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.58), Away AVERAGE (1.23) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

ETSV Hamburg (H) 94.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 3.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nikola Tesla (A) 1.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

ETSV Hamburg face Nikola Tesla on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ETSV Hamburg a 95% chance, the draw 4% and Nikola Tesla 2%, so ETSV Hamburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.6 for ETSV Hamburg and 0.6 for Nikola Tesla (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 89% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ETSV Hamburg are averaging 2.58 points per game versus 1.23 for Nikola Tesla.

ETSV Hamburg vs Nikola Tesla Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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