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Nottingen vs Backnang Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg - 30 ·Thursday, April 30, 2026, 17:00

Nottingen

PPG 1.64 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Backnang

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.6%0-21.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.5%1-16.6%1-24.9%1-32.4%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.5%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.9%3-17.3%3-25.4%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-18.7%4+-26.5%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.3% — — —

Draw 20.0% — — —

Away win 19.7% — — —

Over 2.5 77.0% — — —

Over 3.5 57.8% — — —

BTTS 72.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob72.3%

H 60% / xG 2.6-1.5 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nottingen2.6

Backnang1.5

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.0% · O3.5 PROB 57.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTTINGEN · PPG 1.64

BACKNANG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Nottingen (H) 60.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Backnang (A) 19.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nottingen face Backnang in Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nottingen a 60% chance, the draw 20% and Backnang 20%, so Nottingen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Nottingen and 1.5 for Backnang (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nottingen are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.00 for Backnang. This match finished 1-3.

Nottingen vs Backnang Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Match Preview & Prediction

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