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Backnang vs Goppinger SV Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Backnang

PPG 1.19 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Goppinger SV

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.6%0-24.9%0-32.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-05.3%1-19.4%1-28.3%1-34.9%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.9%2-27.0%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.5%3-14.5%3-24.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.8%4+-22.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 37.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 45.4% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.5%

A 38% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Backnang1.7

Goppinger SV1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BACKNANG · PPG 1.19

GOPPINGER SV · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.19), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Backnang (H) 37.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Goppinger SV (A) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Backnang face Goppinger SV in Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Backnang a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Goppinger SV 38%, so Goppinger SV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Backnang and 1.8 for Goppinger SV (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Backnang are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.06 for Goppinger SV. This match finished 1-0.

Backnang vs Goppinger SV Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Match Preview & Prediction

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