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Aalen vs Backnang Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg - 34 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:30

Aalen

PPG 2.38 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Backnang

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=64.9%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.1%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.5%1-16.0%1-22.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.7%2-18.5%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-18.0%3-23.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.3%4+-111.4%4+-24.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% — — —

Draw 20.6% — — —

Away win 14.4% — — —

Over 2.5 65.8% — — —

Over 3.5 43.1% — — —

BTTS 55.3% — — —

Home O1.5 77.5% — — —

Away O1.5 18.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.3%

H 65% / xG 2.8-0.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 3–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 4–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalen2.8

Backnang0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AALEN · PPG 2.38

BACKNANG · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=64.9%

Win probability 1X2

Aalen (H) 64.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Backnang (A) 14.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalen face Backnang in Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalen a 65% chance, the draw 21% and Backnang 14%, so Aalen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Aalen and 0.8 for Backnang (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalen are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.25 for Backnang. This match finished 4-1.

Aalen vs Backnang Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Match Preview & Prediction

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