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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Świt Skolwin Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Lechia Zielona Góra

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDW

UPCOMING

Świt Skolwin

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.5%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.1%1-16.8%1-23.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.5%2-19.1%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.5%3-18.1%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-010.8%4+-110.2%4+-24.9%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 57.8% 1.73 +10.9%

Draw 18.6% 26.3% 3.80 -17.6%

Away win 17.4% 27.8% 3.60 -22.4%

Over 2.5 64.7% 63.7% 1.57 +1.6%

Over 3.5 44.8% 44.4% 2.25 +0.8%

BTTS 55.9% 66.7% 1.50 -16.2%

Home O1.5 66.3% 61.7% 1.62 +7.4%

Away O1.5 26.1% 33.3% 3.00 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 64% / xG 2.7-1.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.8%

#2 2–0 9.5%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 3–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lechia Zielona Góra2.7

Świt Skolwin1.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LECHIA ZIELONA GÓRA · PPG 1.50

ŚWIT SKOLWIN · PPG 0.86

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.72 for Home, form 1.50 vs 0.86 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lechia Zielona Góra (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +10.9%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -17.6%

Świt Skolwin (A) 17.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lechia Zielona Góra face Świt Skolwin in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lechia Zielona Góra a 64% chance, the draw 19% and Świt Skolwin 17%, so Lechia Zielona Góra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Lechia Zielona Góra and 1.0 for Świt Skolwin (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lechia Zielona Góra are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.86 for Świt Skolwin. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +49.7%.

Lechia Zielona Góra vs Świt Skolwin Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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