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Sokół Kleczew vs Chojniczanka Chojnice Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Sokół Kleczew

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Chojniczanka Chojnice

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.7%0-25.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.3%1-110.8%1-28.0%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.9%2-18.7%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.2%3-14.7%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.7%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 29.4% 3.40 +32.6%

Draw 23.3% 29.4% 3.40 -12.5%

Away win 37.7% 54.6% 1.83 -31.0%

Over 2.5 62.6% 62.5% 1.60 +0.2%

Over 3.5 39.3% 42.0% 2.38 -6.5%

BTTS 62.7% 66.7% 1.50 -5.9%

Home O1.5 48.9% 38.2% 2.62 +28.1%

Away O1.5 40.9% 59.9% 1.67 -31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.7%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.8%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 2–0 5.9%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sokół Kleczew1.6

Chojniczanka Chojnice1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SOKÓŁ KLECZEW · PPG 1.54

CHOJNICZANKA CHOJNICE · PPG 1.54

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sokół Kleczew (H) 39.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +32.6%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.5%

Chojniczanka Chojnice (A) 37.7%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -31.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sokół Kleczew face Chojniczanka Chojnice in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sokół Kleczew a 39% chance, the draw 23% and Chojniczanka Chojnice 38%, so Sokół Kleczew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sokół Kleczew and 1.5 for Chojniczanka Chojnice (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sokół Kleczew are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.54 for Chojniczanka Chojnice. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Sokół Kleczew vs Chojniczanka Chojnice Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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