Today / Poland - II Liga - East / Stal Stalowa Wola vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz

Stal Stalowa Wola vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

Stal Stalowa Wola

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

UPCOMING

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.6%0-23.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.5%1-110.2%1-27.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.2%3-15.7%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 43.5% 2.30 +0.1%

Draw 22.9% 31.3% 3.20 -16.0%

Away win 33.5% 38.2% 2.62 -12.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 58.8% 1.70 +8.3%

Over 3.5 40.2% 38.2% 2.62 +5.3%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 53.0% 45.5% 2.20 +16.6%

Away O1.5 42.2% 47.6% 2.10 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stal Stalowa Wola1.8

Zawisza Bydgoszcz1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

STAL STALOWA WOLA · PPG 1.47

ZAWISZA BYDGOSZCZ · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stal Stalowa Wola (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +0.1%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.0%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stal Stalowa Wola face Zawisza Bydgoszcz in Poland - II Liga - East on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stal Stalowa Wola a 44% chance, the draw 23% and Zawisza Bydgoszcz 34%, so Stal Stalowa Wola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Stal Stalowa Wola and 1.4 for Zawisza Bydgoszcz (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stal Stalowa Wola are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.50 for Zawisza Bydgoszcz. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.8%.

Stal Stalowa Wola vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - II Liga - East Predictions