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Legia Warszawa II vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Legia Warszawa II

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

UPCOMING

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.8%0-23.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.8%1-19.7%1-26.0%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.2%3-16.5%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-15.2%4+-23.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 48.8% 2.05 +9.5%

Draw 22.2% 31.3% 3.20 -17.4%

Away win 24.4% 33.3% 3.00 -16.1%

Over 2.5 63.7% 61.7% 1.62 +3.2%

Over 3.5 40.4% 40.0% 2.50 +1.0%

BTTS 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 54.6% 1.83 +2.1%

Away O1.5 36.8% 44.4% 2.25 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 14.9%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 6.0%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Legia Warszawa II2.0

Rekord Bielsko-Biała1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LEGIA WARSZAWA II · PPG 1.69

REKORD BIELSKO-BIAŁA · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Legia Warszawa II (H) 53.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +9.5%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.4%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Legia Warszawa II face Rekord Bielsko-Biała in Poland - II Liga - East on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Legia Warszawa II a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Rekord Bielsko-Biała 24%, so Legia Warszawa II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Legia Warszawa II and 1.2 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Legia Warszawa II are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.91 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +21.9%.

Legia Warszawa II vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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