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Podhale Nowy Targ vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:00

Podhale Nowy Targ

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDW

UPCOMING

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.3%0-25.6%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.8%1-111.9%1-28.1%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.6%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.0%3-14.1%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 35.7% 2.80 +9.5%

Draw 24.4% 34.5% 2.90 -17.5%

Away win 36.6% 43.5% 2.30 -15.8%

Over 2.5 55.2% 57.8% 1.73 -4.5%

Over 3.5 34.7% 36.4% 2.75 -4.6%

BTTS 58.5% 59.9% 1.67 -2.3%

Home O1.5 39.9% 44.4% 2.25 -10.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 47.6% 2.10 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.5%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Podhale Nowy Targ1.4

Sandecja Nowy Sącz1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PODHALE NOWY TARG · PPG 1.66

SANDECJA NOWY SĄCZ · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Podhale Nowy Targ (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +9.5%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.5%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (A) 36.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Podhale Nowy Targ face Sandecja Nowy Sącz in Poland - II Liga - East on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Podhale Nowy Targ a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Sandecja Nowy Sącz 37%, so Podhale Nowy Targ are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Podhale Nowy Targ and 1.4 for Sandecja Nowy Sącz (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Podhale Nowy Targ are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.78 for Sandecja Nowy Sącz. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +23.5%.

Podhale Nowy Targ vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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