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Vitória SC vs Casa Pia Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

Vitória SC

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWL ·

UPCOMING

Casa Pia

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

Home 62% chance

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-17.0%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.4%1-111.4%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.4%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.4%3-15.1%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 65.4% 1.53 -16.6%

Draw 24.0% 26.7% 3.75 -6.0%

Away win 21.5% 16.7% 6.00 +17.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 50.0% 2.00 +1.2%

Over 3.5 28.9% 28.6% 3.50 +0.7%

BTTS 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Home O1.5 48.1% 57.8% 1.73 -16.8%

Away O1.5 23.4% 20.0% 5.00 +10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.4%

#2 2–0 11.8%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitória SC1.6

Casa Pia0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VITÓRIA SC · PPG 1.57

CASA PIA · PPG 0.79

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vitória SC (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -16.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.0%

Casa Pia (A) 21.5%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitória SC face Casa Pia in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitória SC a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Casa Pia 22%, so Vitória SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vitória SC and 0.8 for Casa Pia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitória SC are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.79 for Casa Pia. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +35.2%.

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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