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Maritimo vs Benfica Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:00

Maritimo

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDL ·

UPCOMING

Benfica

PPG 2.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+23.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.6%0-27.2%0-34.0%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.6%1-111.1%1-29.3%1-35.2%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.3%2-17.2%2-26.0%2-33.4%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.8%3-13.1%3-22.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.4% 8.0% 12.50 +160.5%

Draw 23.4% 18.5% 5.40 +15.8%

Away win 47.1% 80.6% 1.24 -41.6%

Over 2.5 60.7% 63.7% 1.57 -4.7%

Over 3.5 37.7% 41.7% 2.40 -9.5%

BTTS 61.5% 50.0% 2.00 +23.0%

Home O1.5 38.4% 18.2% 5.50 +111.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 75.2% 1.33 -36.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.5%

A 47% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 0–2 7.2%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maritimo1.3

Benfica1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MARITIMO · PPG 1.64

BENFICA · PPG 2.24

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maritimo (H) 29.4%

ODDS 12.50 · IMPLIED 8.0% EV +160.5%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +15.8%

Benfica (A) 47.1%

ODDS 1.24 · IMPLIED 80.6% EV -41.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maritimo face Benfica in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maritimo a 29% chance, the draw 23% and Benfica 47%, so Benfica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Maritimo and 1.7 for Benfica (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maritimo are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 2.24 for Benfica. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +183.8%.

Maritimo vs Benfica Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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