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Estoril vs Arouca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 5 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 19:15

Estoril

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLL ·

UPCOMING

Arouca

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.7%0-26.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.8%1-112.1%1-28.3%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.1%2-18.4%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.8%3-13.9%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 43.5% 2.30 -19.0%

Draw 23.8% 30.8% 3.25 -13.6%

Away win 41.0% 34.5% 2.90 +18.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 30.8% 3.25 +3.0%

BTTS 55.2% 60.6% 1.65 -8.9%

Home O1.5 39.6% 45.5% 2.20 -12.9%

Away O1.5 42.2% 40.0% 2.50 +5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.2%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estoril1.4

Arouca1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTORIL · PPG 1.14

AROUCA · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estoril (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.0%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.6%

Arouca (A) 41.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estoril face Arouca in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estoril a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Arouca 41%, so Arouca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Estoril and 1.4 for Arouca (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estoril are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.27 for Arouca. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.5%.

Estoril vs Arouca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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