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GIL Vicente vs Academico Viseu Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:30

GIL Vicente

PPG 2.05 · HOME

LAST 5

WWD ··

UPCOMING

Academico Viseu

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDL ·

// Model verdict

Home 54% chance

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.1%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.8%1-111.7%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.2%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 54.1% 1.85 -1.2%

Draw 24.4% 30.8% 3.25 -12.4%

Away win 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Home O1.5 48.1% 50.0% 2.00 -3.8%

Away O1.5 26.1% 26.7% 3.75 -1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GIL Vicente1.6

Academico Viseu0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIL VICENTE · PPG 2.05

ACADEMICO VISEU · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

GIL Vicente (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.4%

Academico Viseu (A) 22.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

GIL Vicente face Academico Viseu in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GIL Vicente a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Academico Viseu 22%, so GIL Vicente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for GIL Vicente and 0.9 for Academico Viseu (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GIL Vicente are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 1.36 for Academico Viseu. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.7%.

GIL Vicente vs Academico Viseu Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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