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Estrela vs Famalicao Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:30

Estrela

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DDW ··

UPCOMING

Famalicao

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.9%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.7%1-112.6%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.9%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 32.8% 3.05 +37.9%

Draw 26.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

Away win 28.9% 42.7% 2.34 -19.4%

Over 2.5 51.3% 47.6% 2.10 +7.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 26.0% 3.85 +21.7%

BTTS 53.9% 54.6% 1.83 -1.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 34.7% 2.88 +14.9%

Away O1.5 32.6% 41.7% 2.40 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estrela1.4

Famalicao1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTRELA · PPG 1.18

FAMALICAO · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estrela (H) 45.2%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +37.9%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.1%

Famalicao (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estrela face Famalicao in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estrela a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Famalicao 29%, so Estrela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Estrela and 1.1 for Famalicao (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estrela are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.20 for Famalicao. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +32.0%.

Estrela vs Famalicao Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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