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Sporting CP vs Nacional Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:30

Sporting CP

PPG 2.35 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWW ·

UPCOMING

Nacional

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.4%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.4%1-18.1%1-23.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.9%3-17.6%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-18.0%4+-23.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 83.3% 1.20 -25.8%

Draw 18.1% 16.7% 6.00 +5.2%

Away win 20.1% 7.4% 13.50 +102.8%

Over 2.5 64.1% 70.4% 1.42 -9.0%

Over 3.5 42.2% 50.0% 2.00 -15.6%

BTTS 56.6% 54.1% 1.85 +4.7%

Home O1.5 66.3% 80.0% 1.25 -17.1%

Away O1.5 26.4% 20.0% 5.00 +19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.6%

H 62% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting CP2.4

Nacional1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CP · PPG 2.35

NACIONAL · PPG 0.90

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sporting CP (H) 61.8%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -25.8%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +5.2%

Nacional (A) 20.1%

ODDS 13.50 · IMPLIED 7.4% EV +102.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting CP face Nacional in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting CP a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Nacional 20%, so Sporting CP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Sporting CP and 1.0 for Nacional (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting CP are averaging 2.35 points per game versus 0.90 for Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +70.6%.

Sporting CP vs Nacional Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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