Today / England - Championship / Southampton vs Ipswich Town

Southampton vs Ipswich Town Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 40 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 18:45

Southampton

PPG 1.95 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ipswich Town

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.5%0-26.6%0-33.4%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.5%1-111.6%1-28.9%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.1%2-17.8%2-26.0%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.3%3-13.5%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 45.9% 2.18 -20.4%

Draw 30.1% 29.0% 3.45 +3.9%

Away win 33.4% 31.7% 3.15 +5.2%

Over 2.5 59.0% 57.8% 1.73 +2.1%

Over 3.5 32.8% 35.7% 2.80 -8.2%

BTTS 58.5% 63.7% 1.57 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Southampton1.4

Ipswich Town1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTHAMPTON · PPG 1.95

IPSWICH TOWN · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.95) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Southampton (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -20.4%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +3.9%

Ipswich Town (A) 33.4%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Southampton face Ipswich Town in England - Championship on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southampton a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Ipswich Town 33%, so Southampton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Southampton and 1.5 for Ipswich Town (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southampton are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.50 for Ipswich Town. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Southampton vs Ipswich Town Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Championship Predictions