Southampton vs Ipswich Town Prediction— England - Championship

England - Championship Regular Season - 40 St. Mary's Stadium· Southampton Tuesday, April 28, 2026 18:45

Southampton PPG 1.95

2-2 MISS

Ipswich Town PPG 1.50

Away· +5.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Southampton face Ipswich Town in England - Championship on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southampton a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Ipswich Town 33%, so Southampton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Southampton and 1.5 for Ipswich Town (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southampton are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.50 for Ipswich Town. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.5%

Odds: 2.18 EV: -20.4%

Draw 30.1%

Odds: 3.45 EV: +3.9%

Away 33.4%

Odds: 3.15 EV: +5.2%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.73 +2.1%

Over 3.5 32.8% Odds: 2.80 -8.2%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.57 -8.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Southampton

1.35

Ipswich Town

1.54

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +2.1% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Away(+5.2%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -1.0%

Bet Hit 56% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.95) > Away GOOD (1.50)